Democrats Make History on Election Day!

--November 08, 2011--

Philadelphia Inquirer:

To hear Democrats tell the story of Tuesday's election, voters went to the polls to make sure Democratic legislators continue to keep a Republican governor and his attack-style politics under control. "Last night was a clear indication that New Jersey has had enough with Gov. Christie and Republicans who march in lockstep with them," said the state Democratic chairman, Sen. John Wisniewski (D., Middlesex).

Moran:

Gov. Chris Christie, the bully on the playground, doesn’t have much of a punch after all. And for any bully, exposing that weakness creates grave dangers. Because people stop being scared. And then they start dreaming about how nice it would feel to punch back.

Star Ledger:

“This is like a new version of how low can you go," said Assemblyman John Wisniewski (D-Middlesex), the state Democratic chairman. “They understand this is not their election, and they want to lower expectations. At the end of the day, no matter how low they want to convince you the expectations are, it doesn’t wash.”

PolitickerNJ:

Wisniewski stuck to the storyline that the election is a referendum on the governor, nothing more, nothing less. "This election is not about pension and benefit reform, it’s about people paying higher property taxes when they were told they wouldn’t. It’s about people seeing an assault on public education and saying that’s not good. It’s about Chris Christie not being right for New Jersey.”

Wall Street Journal:

“Despite national ardor for a Chris Christie presidential run, voters who know him best have not been influenced by his attempt to generate support for Republican legislative candidates,” New Jersey Democratic chairman John Wisniewski wrote. He added that Christie has tipped too far to the right while flirting with a presidential run, a move that he says has turned off New Jersey voters.

Philadelphia Inquirer:

With his 2009 election, Christie became the Republican Governor with the most ineffective coattails in the past hundred years and the most ineffective among all Governors since 1940. With only 41.7% of legislative seats won by Republican candidates in 2009, it became the lowest percentage of Republican legislators in a year in which a fellow Republican won the gubernatorial election. Among all the Governors, Christie had the most ineffective coattail effect since Democrat Charles Edison's election in 1940 when 30% of legislators elected were fellow Democrats.

Monmouth Pollster Patrick Murray PolitickerNJ:

It turns out the governor’s definition of history is a bit underwhelming. Basically, if Republicans could hold on to the seats they already have, the election would be historic. To back this up, the state GOP put out a memo showing that the governor’s party has lost legislative seats in the first midterm elections of 7 of the past 8 governors.

Putting aside numerous mathematical errors in the memo, the state GOP doesn’t take into account the fact that the governor’s party usually picks up seats as a coattail effect during the governor’s initial election. In this context, a loss of seats in the midterm can be viewed as something of a course correction. It turns out the governor’s definition of history is a bit underwhelming. Basically, if Republicans could hold on to the seats they already have, the election would be historic. To back this up, the state GOP put out a memo showing that the governor’s party has lost legislative seats in the first midterm elections of 7 of the past 8 governors

Analyzing these two-cycle changes in legislative seats (governor’s election year plus midterm), we find that 4 of the past 7 governors have actually seen their party experience a net gain of seats.